Papers
of Aaron Tornell.
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Financial
Crises, Financial Liberalization and Boom-Bust Cycles
Abstract: Countries that have experienced occasional financial crises have, on average, grown faster than countries with stable financial conditions. Because financial crises are realizations of down-side risk, we measure their incidence by the skewness of credit growth. Unlike variance, negative skewness isolates the impact of the large, infrequent and abrupt credit busts associated with crises. We find a robust negative link between skewness and GDP growth in a large sample of countries over 1960-2000. This suggests a positive effect of systemic risk on growth. To explain this finding, we present a model in which contract enforceability problems generate borrowing constraints and impede growth. In financially liberalized economies with moderate contract enforceability, systemic risk taking is encouraged and increases investment. This leads to higher mean growth, but also to greater incidence of crises. In the data, the link between skewness and growth is indeed strongest in such economies. Unpublished Appendix to Systemic Crises and Growth (May 2007)
Financial Liberalization (2007, New Palgrave Dictionary)
Abstract: We present a new empirical
decomposition of the effects of financial liberalization on economic growth and
on the incidence of crises. Our empirical estimates show that the direct effect
of financial liberalization on growth by far outweighs the indirect effect via a
higher propensity to crisis. We also discuss several models of financial
liberalization and growth whose predictions are consistent with our empirical
findings.
Concentrated Ownership and Bailout Guarantees (November 2005), with Martin Schneider
Abstract: This paper studies the effect
of bailout guarantees in an economy where ownership of firms is concentrated. In
contrast to standard models of deposit insurance, bailout guarantees need not
generate excessive risk taking, but may instead alleviate underinvestment. While
the economy can experience wasteful lending booms, such booms often end in a
self-correcting soft landing, as in the data. However, an economy that operates
efficiently can also relapse into episodes of inefficient over- or
underinvestment. Financial development has unintended consequences as it
provides markets with tools to better exploit the bailout
guarantee.
Abstract: This paper provides a model
of boom-bust episodes in middle income countries. It features
balance-of-payments crises that are preceded by lending booms and real
appreciation, and followed by recessions and sharp contractions of credit. As in
the data, the nontradables sector accounts for most of
the volatility in output and credit. The model is based on sectoral asymmetries in corporate finance. Currency mismatch
and borrowing constraints arise endogenously. Their interaction gives rise to
self-fulfilling crises.
Abstract: At first glance, the
experience of
Crises and Growth: A Re-evaluation (September 2003), with Romain Ranciere and Frank Westermann
Abstract: We address the question of
whether growth and welfare can be higher in crisis-prone economies. First, we
show that there is a robust empirical link between per-capita GDP growth and
negative skewness of credit growth across countries
with active financial markets. That is, countries that have experienced
occasional crises have grown on average faster than countries with smooth credit
conditions. We then present a two-sector endogenous growth model in which
financial crises can occur, and analyze the relationship between financial
fragility and growth. The underlying credit market imperfections generate
borrowing constraints, bottlenecks and low growth. We show that under certain
conditions endogenous real exchange rate risk arises and firms find it optimal
to take on credit risk in the form of currency mismatch. A long such a risky
path average growth is higher, but self-fulfilling crises occur occasionally.
Furthermore, we establish conditions under which the adoption of credit risk is
welfare improving and brings the allocation nearer to the Pareto optimal level.
The design of the model is motivated by several features of recent crises:
credit risk in the form of foreign currency denominated debt; costly crises that
generate firesales and widespread bankruptcies; and
asymmetric sectorial responses, where the nontradables sector falls more than the tradables sector in the wake of
crises.
Credit Market Imperfections in Middle Income Countries (January 2003), with Frank Westermann
Abstract: In recent decades many middle
income countries (MICs) have liberalized their
financial markets. Financial liberalization has typically been followed by
lending booms during which credit grows unusually fast. Some of these booms have
been punctuated by twin currency and banking crises that are followed by a
protracted credit crunch. In this paper we document three credit market
imperfections prevalent in MICs that can explain these
boom-bust cycles as well as other macroeconomic patterns observed at higher
frequencies across MICs. These imperfections are the
existence of borrowing constraints (the effects of which differ across sectors),
currency mismatch and systemic bailout guarantees.
The Credit Channel in Middle Income Countries (October 2002), with Frank Westermann
Abstract: Credit market conditions play
a key role in propagating shocks in middle income countries (MICs). In particular, shocks to the spread between domestic
and international interest rates have a strong effect on GDP, and an even
stronger effect on domestic credit. This strong credit channel is associated
with a sharp sectorial asymmetry: the output of the
bank-dependent nontradables (N) sector reacts more
strongly than tradables (T) output. This asymmetry, in
turn, is associated with a strong reaction of the real exchange rate —the
relative price between N and T goods. We present a model that reconciles these
facts and leads to a well specified estimation framework. From the equilibrium
we derive structural VARs that allow us to identify shocks to credit market
conditions and trace their effects on the economy. We estimate these structural
VARs for a group of MICs and find evidence of a strong
credit channel. We argue that at the heart of the MIC credit channel are a deep
asymmetry in financing opportunities across N and T sectors, and a severe
currency mismatch. This makes movements in the real exchange rate the driving
element in the amplification of shocks. Finally, we show that the model’s key
assumptions are consistent with evidence gleaned from both firm level and
aggregate data.
Soft Landings (February 2000), with Martin Schneider
Abstract: A country experiencing a
lending boom goes through a period of unusually fast growth in credit. This
paper proposes a theory of lending booms that incorporates two distortions which
are prevalent in emerging markets: the imperfect enforceability of contracts and
government bailout guarantees. The first of distortion implies that there may be
an underinvestment problem and that shocks are propagated through their effect
on borrower wealth. The second distortion amplifies shocks since it encourages
excessive risk taking and overinvestment. Although they appear to affect
borrowing in opposite ways, the tow distortions do not neutralize each other.
They combine to rationalize the gradual buildup of lending booms, the excess
volatility of credit and asset prices and the slow recovery if a lending boom
ends in a financial crisis. The interaction also introduces a
nonlinearity in the response to shocks. This explains why most lending
booms do not require a large negative shock to end, but rather come to a ’soft
landing’. In addition to accounting for the main
characteristics of a typical lending boom episode the model also surprising
policy implications.
Abstract: The remarkable turnaround of
the Mexican economy and the evolution of the banking problem is of interest in its own right. In addition, it is of
interest to policy makers in other countries where debt-servicing difficulties
and foreign exchange crisis have forced adjustment measures. In this paper,
therefore, we examine the causes of the crisis, the crisis itself (insofar as it
is relevant to understanding the response), and the evolution of the Mexican
economy since the crisis.
Book: Boom-Bust Cycles and Financial Liberalization (2005, MIT Press), with Frank Westermann
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Exchange
Rates, Asset Pricing and Robust Control
Abstract: We show that robustness against model misspecification can account for the forward premium puzzle through a combination of an exchange rate model and a robustness model under structured uncertainty. In equilibrium, optimizing agents, who hold no misperception about the model, distort their forecasts to attain robustness against potential misspecification. This forecast distortion generates a delayed overreaction of exchange rates to interest rate differential shocks that leads to a negative unconditional correlation between exchange rate changes and interest rate differentials, i.e., a negative Fama coefficient. Using change-of-measure techniques, we derive the familiar uncovered interest rate parity condition—under distorted expectations—and the Fama coefficient in closed-form. We calibrate our model with empirical estimates of key parameters and are able to generate a negative Fama coefficient under sufficient uncertainty-aversion. Extended Appendix to Exchange Rates Under Robustness: The Forward Premium Puzzle
Exchange Rate Puzzles and Distorted Beliefs (June 2003), with Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas
Abstract: We propose a new explanation
for the foreign exchange forward-premium and delayed-overshooting puzzles. We
show that both puzzles arise from a systematic distortion in investor’s beliefs
about the interest rate process. Accordingly, the forward premium is always a
biased predictor of future depreciation; the bias can be so severe as to lead to
negative coefficients in the ‘Fama’ regression.
Delayed overshooting may or may not occur depending upon the persistence of
interest rate innovations and the degree of misperception. We document
empirically the extent of this distortion using survey data for G-7 countries
against the
Exchange Rate Anomalies Under Model Misspecification: A Mixed Optimal/Robust Approach (January 2003)
Abstract: Many asset pricing anomalies
imply the existence of time-varying predictable excess returns, as well as
short-run underreaction and long-run overreaction to
news. The presence of short-sales constraints or of misperception has been often
invoked to explain such patterns. In this paper I present a ‘mixed
optimal/robust’ model with rational agents that hold no misperception and face
no borrowing constraints. In equilibrium, agents do not borrow as much as they
could, and filter news in ways that are consistent with the anomalies mentioned
above. We use the model to rationalize the forward premium
puzzle.
Robust-H_infinity Forecasting and Asset Pricing Anomalies (December 2001)
Abstract: We present a Robust-H_infinity model that helps rationalize well known asset
pricing anomalies, such as the predictability of excess returns, excess
volatility, and the equity-premium puzzle. As with rational expectations (RE),
agents’ forecasts are based on a rigorous optimization algorithm that does not
presume misperceptions — it simply departs from some of the implicit assumptions
that underlie RE. Agents fear the existence of misspecification and design
strategies that will be robust against a very large class of misspecifications.
The new element is that uncertainty cannot be modeled via probability
distributions. We consider an asset pricing model where uncertainty is
represented by unknown-but bounded disturbance sequences, as in the H_infinity -control literature. Agents must filter the
‘persistent’ component of a sequence of dividend observations in order to make
consumption and portfolio decisions. We find that H_infinity forecasts are more sensitive to news than RE
forecasts and equilibrium prices exhibit the anomalies previously
mentioned.